Time series modeling of road traffic accidents in Amhara Region

Abstract Road traffic accidents (RTA) are commonly encountered incidents that can cause injuries, death, and property damage to members of society. Ethiopia is one the highest incident rates road accidents. Report Transport Communication from 2012 2014, shows an increment in number Ethiopia. Amhara region accounted for 27.3% total accident-related deaths during year 2008/9, which share among all regions The current research aims model trend injury, fatal September 2013 May 2017. Monthly reported were obtained department police commission. most universal class models forecasting time series data called Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Averages (ARIMA) applied trends patterns accident cases region. average observed injury RTA, RTA 27.2, 14, 78.2 per month respectively. It was a relatively large RTA’s on Tuesday, Thursday, Saturday relative other days week. also reveals more than 60% involve drivers between ages 18–30 years. ARIMA (2,0,0) (1,0,0) (1,1,0) fitted as best accidents, A 48 months forecast made based it be concluded would continue at non-decreasing rate predicted periods. Therefore, findings this study draw attention importance implementing improved better policies close monitoring trafficking change existing .